Tariffs slow global trade – with the United States hit the hardest

News

New simulations by the National Board of Trade Sweden show that the tariffs introduced since late 2024 have a clearly negative effect on global trade.

The United States’ trade is hit the hardest, and the country’s GDP falls by up to 4 per cent as a result of the tariffs. Sweden and the EU perform relatively well thanks to their current trade agreement with the US, but several export sectors – including the steel industry – are clearly affected. The analysis includes three scenarios with different tariff levels to show how changes affect GDP, exports and imports.

“US exports decrease by between 10 and 18 per cent depending on the scenario. The industries the tariffs are intended to protect are among those most negatively affected,” says Trade Policy Adviser Lovi Nordgren.

Read the full interview and download the report
Modelling a New Era in Trade: Tariff tensions across three scenarios