The EU–US tariffs and trade

On this page, you will find our analyses of the EU–US trade and trade policy.

Simulation: What effects will the tariffs have in the years to come?

National Board of Trade Sweden has simulated the effects of the new tariffs introduced by the United States and other countries since the end of 2024. Three different scenarios are simulated to analyse how changes in tariff levels affect world trade and the global economy.

The main scenario reflects the tariff levels in effect October 2025, including the trade agreement between the EU and the United States from August 2025 (the Turnberry Agreement). The other two scenarios represent a milder and a more escalated situation with even higher tariffs. We set out to evaluate how these changes affect different countries and sectors, and their impact on GDP, exports and imports.

The results show that these tariffs have a negative impact on global trade – and that the United States itself is the most affected. The country’s GDP falls by around 1–4 per cent in all three scenarios.

Download the simulation:
Modelling a New Era in Trade: Tariff tensions across three scenarios (October 2025)

Could higher tariffs reduce a country's trade deficit?

Analysing data on tariffs and trade balances from 168 countries between 2019 and 2022, we find no correlation between high tariffs and a positive trade balance. Our analysis shows that raising tariffs is an ineffective method to improve a country's trade balance. To reduce a trade deficit, efforts should focus on strengthening public finances and promoting foreign investment rather than increasing tariffs.

Take part of our analysis: Tariffs do not Improve the Trade Balance