Analysis: A New Era in International Trade Requires a New Rule-Based Trade Coalition

In an analysis, the National Board of Trade Sweden proposes that the new era created in the international trade structure means that the EU should build new support frameworks together with like-minded partners to revitalise a rule-based trading system.

So far, the EU has reacted to US tariffs by seeking to limit the damage of the new US trade policy, most notably through the deal agreed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and US President Donald Trump at Turnberry, Scotland, on 27 July 2025. While the Turnberry deal was necessary in the short term, it reflects a reactive approach that does not protect long-term EU interests or set the rule-based trading system on a sustainable path.

In connection with the June 2025 European Council, Ursula von der Leyen proposed that the EU deepen its cooperation with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – a large free trade area made up of large economies from five different continents. According to von der Leyen, this constellation of countries can ‘show to the world that free trade with a large number of countries is possible on a rule-based foundation’.

Six Areas of Cooperation

The most realistic way for the EU to revive a rule-based trading system, is indeed to build new, supporting structures together with like-minded partners. The National Board of Trade Sweden therefore propose that the EU launch a rule-based trade coalition (RBTC). To be successful, the coalition would have to generate real commercial benefits for its members.

The National Board of Trade suggest six areas of cooperation that would add substance to the strategic direction suggested by von der Leyen and others. According to our proposal, the RBTC would be WTO compatible, but not part of the WTO. As in the past, the best way to strengthen the multilateral trading system is to act both within and outside the GATT/WTO institutional structure.

The EU at the Core of the Coalition

In line with von der Leyen’s proposal, the EU and the CPTPP would form the core of the coalition, but more countries could be invited to take part. Besides the EU27, EU candidate countries and CPTPP members, other EU FTA partners that that are either part of the Ottawa group of like-minded WTO members or the MPIA, should be considered. Together, the countries we identify represent more than half of world trade in goods. The coalition could remain open to more partners, provided that they are open to real trade integration. Countries that ignore WTO commitments, rely on import substitution policies or insist on maintaining high tariffs and other trade barriers would be less suitable as RBTC partners.

A New Era in Trade Policy

It is crucial to recognise that we have entered a new trade policy era. The new era will require solutions that take inspiration from but are not necessarily the same as in the past. New institutions that shape international trade relation will emerge over time. The only question is whether the EU is among the economies that shape those institutions and whether they support rule